Copyright: Eric S. Margolis, 2002
May 27, 2002
LONDON - India and Pakistan are on the verge of a catastrophic war over Kashmir: 1.4 million troops from the two nations are poised for battle from the Tibet border to the Arabian Sea. The two old foes are trading artillery barrages along the Kashmir cease-fire line. Pakistan's and India's nuclear arsenals are on hair-trigger alert, as political leaders and generals on both sides play nuclear chicken over divided Kashmir.
The world is now facing the most dangerous nuclear confrontation since the 1962 US-USSR Cuban missile crisis. Yet in the west, there is little media attention to this enormous threat, and almost no public interest or concern. The crisis over Kashmir might as well be on Jupiter. The discovery of the body of a long-missing female intern in Washington has totally eclipsed news of a possible nuclear war in South Asia that could kill tens of millions and contaminate the entire globe with clouds of radioactive dust.
India has boxed itself into a diplomatic corner by proclaiming it would go to war against Pakistan unless Islamic separatists stop attacking its garrisons in the Indian-ruled portion of Kashmir - attacks India blames on raiders from Pakistan, but Pakistan insists are staged by Kashmiri insurgents inside Indian Kashmir. But the attacks continued, leaving India's government, dominated by militant Hindu nationalists, looking inept and helpless.
The 750,000 troops India now has massed in Kashmir have proven unable to suppress the 13-year old uprising by Kashmir's Muslim majority against Indian rule. India insists the dirty guerilla war in Kashmir, in which 60,000 people have died to date, is entirely the work of Pakistan. In fact, India faces a genuine popular uprising by the Muslim majority. Pakistan aides some of the rebel groups, though not all. Now, Delhi is threatening to unleash its army, either to stage limited attacks against insurgent bases inside Pakistani Kashmir, or in a general offensive against Pakistan proper, a massive operation that could quickly escalate into nuclear war.
Pakistan has recently found itself squeezed between the United States and India. It continues to discreetly support the Kashmir `intifada' while officially claiming it has ceased support for trans-border insurgent attacks, which the US brands `Islamic terrorism,' but Pakistanis term a legitimate liberation struggle by an oppressed people. Pakistan, which is outnumbered and outgunned by seven-times larger India, has made clear that it may respond to any major Indian ground attacks with tactical nuclear weapons.
India's High Command has taken this threat very seriously. Even limited Indian commando attacks on insurgent bases in Pakistani Kashmir could rapidly escalate into full-scale conventional, then nuclear war. So India's government has resisted populist clamor to attack Pakistan, though Delhi's generals are itching to have a go at Pakistan. By contrast, Pakistan showed in its 1999 incursion into Indian-ruled Ladakh that it was willing to risk a limited military operation in spite of the nuclear threat.
India and Pakistan need to be given a face-saving way out of this confrontation. But India has long refused outside mediation of Kashmir, which it deems an internal matter, though the UN repeatedly called for a plebiscite to determine the desires of the state's people: independence, remaining part of India, or joining Pakistan. Pakistan has sought to internationalize the Kashmir dispute for half a century. Any concession by one side will thus be seen as a major victory for its foe.
The Bush Administration is urgently seeking to defuse the crisis between Delhi and Islamabad, fearing it is undermining US efforts to hunt Osama bin Laden and turn Pakistan into a major base of operations.
However, Washington's clumsy policies have played a key role in the current crisis, as this column warned last fall when the US signed an `anti-terrorist' pact with India. Delhi took the agreement to be carte blanche to go after Pakistan. By foolishly branding Kashmir separatists as `Islamic terrorists,' the Bush Administration inadvertently encouraged India to follow the US example in Afghanistan by striking at `terrorist' bases inside Pakistani Kashmir. Now, to India's understandable fury, the White House is furiously back-peddling and calling on Delhi for `restraint,' something it certainly failed to show in Afghanistan.
With tensions at the breaking point, another bloody incident, such as the December attack on India's parliament, or last week's raid on an Indian Army base in southern Kashmir, could finally provoke an Indian attack. This means that the fate of South Asia may well be in the hands of militant `jihadi,' - or holy war groups - in Pakistan and Indian Kashmir who believe an Indo-Pakistani conflict would somehow liberate Kashmir and drive the Americans from Afghanistan and Pakistan. One of these shadowy groups mounted the December attack on India's parliament, which provoked India to declare its own, Bush-style `total war against terrorism.'
India could attack at any moment, even as early as this weekend. The powerful Indian Navy is on war station in the Arabian Sea, ready to blockade Karachi, cutting off Pakistan's imports and exports, including oil. War fever is overcoming caution. A wrong move, new attack, or even a mistake, could plunge 20% of mankind into disaster.
<--full details.
