WASHINGTON DC - The ugly confrontation between Washington and Beijing caused by the collision of a Chinese fighter and US spy plane is needless and dangerous. Both nations are increasingly behaving like Cold War enemies rather than important trading partners.
Last fall, China's air force, which recently received some modern, long-range fighters, began aggressively buzzing US electronic spy planes that have routinely flown just off the Chinese coast since the Korean War. China was clearly trying to assert for the first time a 200 mile air security zone. The US only recognizes a 12-mile limit abroad. But the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD) enforces a 200-mile air security zone around the continent and intercepts any foreign aircraft entering the no-go zone.
A slow-flying US EP-3E ELINT (electronic intelligence) aircraft collided with a Chinese F-8 fighter, flown by a pilot with a record of aggressive action towards US aircraft. The collision occurred over international waters, 100 kms southeast of Hainan, a large island bristling with Chinese military bases. The F-8 crashed and its pilot was lost; the damaged EP-3E managed an emergency landing on Hainan. China impounded the aircraft and arrested the 23 crew members, demanding an apology from the United States.
China is understandably irritated by US ELINT flights along its maritime borders. Though legal under international law, they are highly provocative. Americans would be just as irked if Chinese aircraft patrolled the US East Coast from bases in Cuba.
The US Seventh Fleet, which patrols the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, and American bases in Okinawa and Japan, are seen by China as prime military threats. China's long-term strategy is to isolate, then absorb Taiwan, and push US power away from the coasts of Asia, back into the Pacific.
Beijing accuses the US of `arrogance.' While the ELINT flights provide the Pentagon with excellent `real-time' information, much, though not all, of this task can be done by spy satellites and ground-based systems in Japan and at sea. An important mission for the US spy plane was monitoring China's new, Russian-supplied `Sovremenny'-class destroyers, whose deadly anti-ship missiles are capable of sinking US aircraft carriers.
China's role in this needless crisis has been particularly dismaying. It appears China's military set the tone and pace for the crisis, first wrongly accusing the US of intrusion, then asserting the US aircraft purposely rammed the Chinese jet, then by treating the aircrew like prisoners of war rather than accident survivors.
While the Bush Administration tried to downplay the crisis and leave China diplomatic escape routes, Beijing's rhetoric grew increasingly harsh. China's state media rekindled anger over the accidental 1999 bombing by the US of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, and give ordinary Chinese the impression that US `air bandits' were threatened China, an outrage unthinkable in the days of `Grandpa Mao.'
In fact, it was China's firing salvos of missiles at Taiwan and ostentatiously conducting amphibious drills opposite the island that produced heightened US attention to the Taiwan Strait. This belligerent behavior supplied ammunition to the Republican Party's anti-Chinese faction and to the Pentagon, which is searching for a new world-class foe to replace the defunct Soviets.
Making matters worse, Beijing foolishly tried to humiliate the US by demanding Washington apologize for the accident, a demand the US was certain to refuse. President Bush made clear he would not kowtow to Beijing. Now the Chinese have to find a way to back down and out of this unfortunate mess without losing too much face.
Any other recourse by China would be self-defeating. Exports are the key to China's growing strategic power and rising national prosperity. A third of China's exports go to the United States. If just Wall-Mart and K-Mart cancel orders, millions of Chinese will be thrown out of work. American unions are looking for a pretext to slap tariffs or restrictions on Chinese imports. You don't kick your best customer in the shins. So China's cooler heads and businessmen are telling Beijing. America's business community is asking Washington to turn down the heat.
China's hopes of securing the Olympics and joining the World Trade Organization could be jeopardized by the Hainan incident. An enraged America is not to be taken lightly.
Most important, however, China and the US are not strategic enemies or even rivals. They are natural trading partners and, if the Taiwan issue can ever be resolved, natural strategic allies, as well. China and the US are increasingly linked by culture, technology, and movement of people. Americans are now giving Chinese the long-overdue respect they deserve. Americans and Chinese have an historic natural affinity.
As the power of China's communist party wanes - and it will - Sino-American relations will deepen and broaden. But America will also eventually have to back off China's coasts and adopt a lower military profile in the western Pacific, like it or not. China is a great power and must be afforded a certain amount of strategic elbow room.
The image that Chinese should have of Americans is not the unfortunate EP-3E spy plane, nor the accidental Belgrade bombing, but the American volunteer pilots of General Claire Chennault's Flying Tigers in their shark-mouthed P-40's, defending the skies of China from the invading Japanese during World War II.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2001
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