Macedonia is a tiny Balkan nation with a population smaller than Toronto or
Cleveland, Ohio, but an outbreak of fighting there last week set off alarm
bells across Europe and the United States.
Actually, the official name of this Vermont-sized country is not
Macedonia, but `The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.' One half
expects it to be ruled by `the former artist known as Prince.' Slav
Macedonians like their name. But it enrages Greeks, who claim it belongs to
them. Athens imposed a trade embargo on the landlocked state until the
Macedonians finally agreed to accept their awkward name.
Macedonia, the nexus of the main north-south and east-west corridors
through the Balkan mountains, has always played a key role in the region's
history. Macedonia's most famous king, Alexander the Great, created one of
history's greatest empires. Every Balkan power for the past 2,000 years
has fought to control the Macedonian heartland.
In the darkest Balkans, many things never change. During the Second Balkan
War of 1913, Roland Usher wrote: `Macedonia is merely a geographical
expression - the people possessing unity neither of race nor creed, and
lacking even a common language.'
A century later, little has changed. Orthodox Slavs comprise 58% of the
population, speaking a tongue almost identical to Bulgarian (Bulgaria has
long claimed Macedonia). The 800,000 Muslim and Catholic Albanians, an
ancient, non-Slav people of early Germanic origin, make up 39%, with small
numbers of Serbs, Turks, Greeks, Vlachs, and gypsies. No wonder French
call a mixed fruit salad, a `macedonia.'
Usher's words echoed last week, as fighting erupted in western Macedonia
between Slav government forces and ethnic Albanian guerillas. Gunfire
echoed through the Tetovo Valley, where the 15th-century Albanian national
hero, Skenderbeg, won an epic victory over an invading Ottoman army. NATO
rushed soldiers to the Kosovo-Macedonia border and even allowed Serb troops
into the former buffer zone, led, to NATO's embarrassment, by two generals
who had conducted ethnic cleansing of Kosovo Albanians in 1999.
Albanians and Hungarians remain Europe's two divided peoples. Almost half
of all Albanians, and a third of Hungarians, were handed over to other
nations by Europe's Great Powers, and left stranded under hostile rule.
In 1999, after a century of oppression, the Albanians of Kosovo, rose
against the Serbs. Now, it's Macedonia's turn.
Kosovo and Macedonia are not, however, analogous. Macedonian Albanians
have been excluded from real political and economic power by Slavs, but
they have not been brutalized, as in Kosovo.
However, there is deep animosity between Slav Macedonians and mainly Muslim
Albanians. A majority of Macedonian Albanians favor peaceful protest, and
reject the guerrillas fighting for a Greater Albania, whom one of their
leaders calls `Albanian Rambos.' But a toughening Macedonian response may
radicalize moderate Albanians.
If Macedonia disintegrates, the result could easily be a general Balkan
war. Bulgaria just offered to send troops to aid the Slav Macedonian
government, and growls at old arch-rival, Greece, to stay out of Macedonia.
Greece would not be unhappy to see Macedonia collapse. Macedonia's
Albanians might seek union with their brothers in Kosovo, and eventually
Albania proper, an act sure to be bitterly opposed by Serbia. The Turks
have long hinted they might aid Bulgaria against Greece if war broke out in
Macedonia.
But while Macedonia's Albanians have legitimate grievances against the Slav
government in Skopje, a majority appear unwilling to seek union with Kosovo
or Albania. Macedonian Albanians have the highest living standard among
all Albanians, except for those of the diaspora.
Kosovo remains in economic stagnation and is consumed by rebuilding the
destruction inflicted by the Serbs. Albania proper, which is now run by a
so-called `reformed' communist regime, is an economic and social basket
case, subsisting on handouts from the west, and struggling to escape from
the mental prison of 50 years of Stalinist rule.
Albanians, like other mountaineers, are a notoriously fractious, even
anarchic people. Albanian parties in Kosovo and Albania are too busy
squabbling among themselves to produce effective leadership. The US and
NATO keep funding the most ineffectual Albanian leaders because they are
docile and agree not to rock the boat. So long as Albania remains is a
hopeless mess, the dream of Greater Albania will be just that. We might
even end up with three Albania's.
Europe and the United States appear determined to block Kosovo's
independence or Albanian unification. After promising Kosovo Albanians a
referendum on independence from Serbia, NATO now promotes the fiction that
Kosovo is still part of Serbia and must remain so indefinitely, though
Albanians are driving out the last of its Serb minority. The Bush
Administration has just told little Montenegro it, too, must remain
prisoner of another political fiction, Serb-run Yugoslavia.
Back in 1999, this column predicted US troops could end up battling
Albanians in Kosovo unless it faced reality and granted independence to the
95% ethnic Albanian province. Why independence for East Timor, or Ukraine,
and not Kosovo?
NATO is clearly stuck in the Balkans. If its troops leave Kosovo, Serbs
will return and inflict bloody revenge on Albanian Kosovars. If Albanian
demands for independence are not met, NATO could face a guerrilla war.
More prophetic words from author Usher, penned 88 years ago `..this war (in
the Balkans) is a giant blood feud, a racial struggle, a crusade.'
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2001
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