Copyright: Eric S. Margolis, 2001
January 03, 2002
President George Bush's crusade against terrorism is going splendidly - except for a few minor hiccups, such as that target Osma bin Laden and his al-Qaida remain elusive, the Russians have reoccupied half of Afghanistan, thousands of Afghan civilians have been killed by US bombs, and India is playing nuclear chicken against Pakistan.
Last September 23rd, concerned that US intervention in Afghanistan might spark a war between India and Pakistan, this column warned of the dangers of an `enraged US bull in South Asia's nuclear china shop.' Ten weeks later, India and Pakistan are on the edge of a nuclear conflict that could kill millions and spread radioactive dust around the globe.
The chain of events that led to the current crisis are now plainly visible. The US `war against terrorism' and invasion of Afghanistan upset the delicate balance of enmity between old foes India and Pakistan. The Bush Administration, seeking new allies for its crusade against Muslim opponents, rashly signed a military alliance with India to fight `terrorism.' To India, `terrorism' meant Kashmiri independence-seekers battling Indian rule in occupied Kashmir, and their patron, Pakistan. India had also recently signed a secret, anti - Islamic alliance with Israel, which has become a major supplier of arms and nuclear weapons technology to India. So India, seeing Pakistan of the defensive, upped the military pressure.
The Bush Administration, unaware or heedless of the dangers facing it, had inadvertently stumbled into the 55-year old Kashmir dispute between three nuclear powers, India, Pakistan, and China - just as it was getting drawn ever deeper into Afghanistan's murky tribal politics. Bush's ugly faux pas in referring to Pakistanis as `Pakis' this week gave an alarming insight into how out of touch with foreign affairs and foreign sensibilities the Texas president really is.
Still unidentified militants staged a series of outrageous attacks on Indian targets, including the parliament in New Delhi, designed to bring simmering tensions between the two old foes to a boil, and upset India's new alliances with the US and with Israel. Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida may have been involved. The attackers remain unidentified, though India claims they came from two Kashmiri militant groups harbored by Pakistan. Leaders of these two groups were recently arrested by Pakistan.
India threatened to attack Islamic militants based in Pakistani territory, as it has repeatedly done in the past. If the US could attack Afghanistan because the elusive Osama bin Laden was presumed hiding there, then India, according to President George Bush's own self-proclaimed rules of international retribution, had just as much right to attack Pakistan. The Indians, of course, were absolutely correct - according to Bush's logic. But the US is now urging `restraint' on India, a virtue it failed to show in Afghanistan.
Off on the sidelines, China, another player in this drama, is also urging restraint on all concerned. Yet, at the same time, China is growing increasingly alarmed by what now looks like a permanent presence of US forces in Afghanistan, and the threat of an Indian attack against its most important ally, Pakistan.
China's unease is being heightened by the accelerating strategic arms race with India, which in 1998 proclaimed China its `number one enemy.' India recently introduced its new Agni-II nuclear-armed missile that can hit most of China's major cities.
The US has aggravated Indian-Chinese tensions by sharply tilting towards India and winking at its secret nuclear programs, while keeping Pakistan under a punishing sanctions regime. Washington clearly intends to use India in the game of Asian strategic chess as a potential counterforce against China. Russia is levering its revived strategic alliance with India to advance its geopolitical interests in South and Central Asia, and, most notably, in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, President Pervez Musharraf, finds himself squeezed between Indian threats and US pressure. Musharraf has been trying to appease New Delhi without appearing to do so. Last week, in an embarrassing new low for Pakistan's battered image, Musharraf, who stoutly denied in the past that his nation gave anything more than `moral support' to Kashmiri insurgents, lamely announced his intelligence service would cut off arms and finance to `non-indigenous' mujihadin in Kashmir - meaning non-Kashmiri volunteers. The Indians, who have long accused Pakistan of `cross-border terrorism' and sending `mercenaries' into their part of Kashmir, crowed with triumph while Islamabad ate humble pie.
As India continued to mass troops on Pakistan's border, the US repeated threats, made in September, to ruin Pakistan by cutting off the foreign loans on which it subsists. Adding to these threats, the Indian Navy is poised to blockade Karachi, Pakistan's main port and principal entry point for oil. Spare parts for Pakistan's F-16 warplanes are critically short. Pakistan finds itself alone, facing the Russian to the north in Afghanistan, fire-breathing India to the east, and ever-hostile Iran to the west.
Musharraf's enforced backdown over Kashmir may undermine his support in the armed forces and among the public, which is already battered by the recent fiasco in Afghanistan and the arrest, firing, or muzzling, under American orders, of Islamic activists, leading officers, and government critics. The two worst public jobs in the world today appear to be the presidency of Pakistan and Argentina.
India, hopefully, will content itself with making Pakistan crawl and cry `uncle.' A new outrage by militants, a border clash, or a bombing could still plunge the region into war.
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